Oct 20, 2014

Ebola Chart 4
 





We continue our chart of the progression of Ebola in West Africa, originally introduced in Chronology of the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa. Six weeks of data are added to the last rendition of the chart, Ebola Chart 3, bringing us to Oct 14, 2014. Data is taken from the regular online WHO updates and the last update on or before each data point date is used.

The plots for Sierra Leone and Guinea reflect laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola only. For Liberia, however, because, the great majority of cases have not been confirmed by lab test, the plot is of total cases, comfirmed, probable and suspect.

Trend lines were developed in Ebola Chart 3 to predict the course of the outbreak in each country up to the end of the year. The trend lines were developed using data up to Sept. 2. These trendlines are reproduced here, but with the new data points since Sept. 2 included. The trendlines have NOT been recomputed using the new data.








Chart of Ebola in West Africa

The chart above shows the continued increase in Ebola cases in the three worst affected countries. The Guinean rate of infection has increased markedly over the last six weeks, although it is still lower than the other two countries. The chart appears to indicate some slowing in the Liberian rate of infection, but the WHO maintains that this is only because data collection is not accurately reflecting the actual situation.


Sierra Leone Ebola Trend

The chart above shows the trend line computed on Sept. 2 for Sierra Leone and the actual data points collected since then. The new data shows that Sierra Leone's infection rate has increased since Sept. 2. It is not clear whether this increase is linked to the 3-day 'ose to ose' campaign launched on Sept. 19.


Guinea Ebola Trend



The chart above shows the trend line computed on Sept. 2 for Guinea and the actual data points collected since then. The new data shows that Guinea's infection rate has increased since Sept. 2. This is especially disappointing as Guinea, with a more robust contact tracing effort than the other two countries, had at one point some weeks ago appeared to be gaining the upper hand in the fight against Ebola.

Liberia Ebola Trend

The chart above shows one of two trend lines computed on Sept. 2 for Liberia and the actual data points collected since then. The new data appears to indicate that the trend is overly pessimistic, although the WHO is saying there are a large number of unreported cases from Liberia.

Liberia Ebola Trend


The chart above shows the second of two trend lines computed on Sept. 2 for Liberia and the actual data points collected since then. The new data appears to indicate that this trend is optimistic and that if the outbreak continues unchecked, Liberia will have more than the 6,600 predicted cases by the end of the year.














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