Text Box:

 

 

 

 

 

Text Box: HOMEANALYSIS OF 2012 VOTER TURNOUT

 

 

 

REGION

DISTRICT

2012 REGISTERED VOTERS (provisional list)

2012 ACTUAL VOTES, PRESIDENTIAL (excludes invalid votes - unavailable by district but 4.7% of total)

2012 VOTER TURNOUT (excludes invalid votes - unavailable by district but 4.7% of total)

2007 VOTER TURNOUT, first round, presidential

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

East

Kailahun

146,055

116728

79.92%

77.6%

 

Kenema

249,065

209535

84.13%

78.1%

 

Kono

164,983

115529

70.02%

75.6%

 

TOTAL EAST

                           560,103

 

441792

 

78.88%

 

North

Bombali

222,703

188873

84.81%

76.5%

 

Kambia

139,355

108039

77.53%

65.9%

 

Koinadugu

140,013

103305

73.78%

66.9%

 

Port Loko

239,068

202532

84.72%

74.5%

 

Tonkolili

187,804

157054

83.63%

75.1%

 

TOTAL NORTH

                           928,943

 

759803

 

81.79%

 

South

Bo

249,763

219582

87.92%

79.3%

 

Bonthe

73,991

65477

88.49%

77.4%

 

Moyamba

131,865

109545

83.07%

73.3%

 

Pujehun

82,126

67993

82.79%

72.3%

 

TOTAL SOUTH

537,745

 

462597

 

86.03%

 

West

Western Rural

164,891

136395

82.72%

75.1%

 

Western Urban

509,617

441141

86.56%

79.1%

 

TOTAL

WEST

674,508

 

577536

 

85.62%

 

 

GRAND

 TOTAL

2,701,299

 

2241728(excluding

invalid votes)

82.99%

(ex invalid)

87.3% (inc invalid)

 

75.8%

 

 

 

The SLPP has claimed massive overvoting and ballot stuffing by its opponents in Kono, the North and the Western Area. We have spent some time analyzing the figures released by NEC and do not find evidence in the voter turnout to back this up. There is no clear bias in the voter turnout figures in the different regions. Indeed the highest turnouts, 87.92% and 88.49% are found in Bo and Bonthe districts, two SLPP strongholds. By region the North at 83.63% had a lower turnout than the South (86.03%) and the Western Area (85.62%).  The East (78.88%) was affected by a relatively low turnout in Kono district.

 

It is true these turnout figures generally are high when compared to the same figures from 2007, especially so when one considers that the 2007 figures include invalid votes, whilst the 2012 figures given above do not, as they are not yet available by district from NEC. The overall invalid vote 2012 percentage is given as 4.7%, and as an approximation this could be added to the 2012 turnout by district above to find the overall district figures. This would put some districts into the 90%+ region, a good 15% more than their 2007 figure. However, with the exception of Kono the figures are uniformly higher than in 2007, rather than this increase being restricted to just the APC areas, as the SLPP protests might lead us to believe. 

 

What might have caused this large increase in 2012 turnout compared to 2007? Possibly an increase in voter interest, although both elections appeared to be equally keenly contested with fervent support on both sides. Another possible explanation could be over registration (as opposed to over voting) in 2007 compared to 2012, when the biometric registration was introduced. Over registration might reduce turnout because some of those multiple registrants would presumably have some difficulty actually voting more than once on the single day that is allotted for the actual election. This theory of over registration in 2007 is also supported by the very small increase in voter registration numbers between 2007 and 2012, much less than the expected population increase.

 

All the above does not exclude the possibility of over voting and ballot stuffing in 2012 in individual polling stations and centres. But the available figures do not seem to support the contention that this could have been widespread enough to materially alter the outcome, as published by NEC.

 

*  an explanation of the methodology used in the table above. The registered voter figures are taken directly from the provisional list posted on the NEC website. These figures were later adjusted, but the adjusted figures by district have not been made public. The adjusted national total is calculated to be 2,692,584, or only 9000 odd less than the original provisional figure, so the percentage difference is very small and results in a very slight underestimate in the district turnout figures given above. The actual votes for 2012 uses the NEC figures but without including the invalid votes, which are not currently available by district. The invalid votes are given as 4.7% of the total, so we should expect this sort of magnitude underestimation in our figures for district turnout.

** The NEC chairperson’s statement erroneously gives 2,350,626 as the valid votes cast. However, when one adds the individual district numbers to the total invalid votes given it becomes clear that this figure is the total votes cast, valid plus invalid.